City Climate.NET
Current: Q1 2024
Contents
1 Climate Projections for Las Vegas, Nevada
2 Climate Impacts on the Las Vegas region
3 Southern Nevada's Carbon Spew
1. What will Las Vegas's climate be like in the coming years and decades?
This is a summary of the changes that scientists are projecting for Southern Nevada's climate.
YEAR ROUND
Temperatures in Las Vegas will continue to rise over the years and decades. If people reduce carbon emissions quickly and drastically, temps could begin to stabilize after just a couple decades.
WINTER
In winter, precipitation will continue to shift from mountain snow to free-flowing rain. When snow does occur, it's melting earlier rather than later in the spring.
Winter flooding is happening more often, and will become more frequent. With the warming climate we see rain coming down all-at-once during voluminous storms, rather than spread more evenly through the year.
SUMMER
Heat waves will happen more often and with greater severity.
Extremely hot days (over 105˚F) and much warmer overnights will be more common.
Note: This is a brief summary of the Executive Summary of “Climate Change in Nevada,” a report written as part of Nevada’s State Climate Initiative. The full report is available on the Nevada Climate Initiative website, ClimateAction.nv.gov
* heatwaves are three or more extremely hot days in a row. ** in Las Vegas, statistically, extremely hot begins at 105˚
extension.unr.edu/publication.aspx?PubID=3957 (University of Nevada Reno 2021)
naes.agnt.unr.edu/PMS/Pubs/2021-3957.pdf (University of Nevada Reno 2021)
It’s not just the scientists… long-time locals will tell you Las Vegas’s heat season is lasting much longer.
Las Vegas’s heat season will keep getting longer because carbon in the atmosphere continues to accumulate. In the early 2000s, temps were dangerously hot in Las Vegas (over 105˚) for a total 80 days (2.7 months each year.) By 2050, dangerous heat days will last 106 days (3.5 months each year).
Bullhead City is what Las Vegas’s climate will feel like in the 2080s
Bullhead City’s climate is migrating to Las Vegas. To get an idea of what the climate will be like in Las Vegas several decades from now, climate researchers at University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science averaged the results of 27 supercomputer climate models.
Las Vegas’s changed climate (on average) in the 2080s will feel 8°F hotter and 27% drier - like the climate of low-desert Bullhead City, Arizona in the 2020s. graphic by cityclimate.net
What’s the hottest Las Vegas has ever gotten? How hot can it get?
Las Vegas reached its record high temp of 117˚ four times since records from Harry Reid Airport began in 1950. In 70+ years at the airport, the temp rose to 117˚ only in the last 20 years (July 19, 2005, June 30, 2013, July 21, 2017, July 10, 2021). As even more heat accumulates in the atmosphere (from burning coal and gas), scientists project that temps above 110˚ will be occurring much more often in Southern Nevada, going forward.
reviewjournal.com/local/local-las-vegas/las-vegas-hottest-june-ends-with-a-117-degree-high-tying-the-record/
weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=vef
2. This is how the changing climate is impacting Las Vegas and Southern Nevada, right now.
Las Vegas Valley’s water supply is shrinking.
The Valley gets 90% of its water from Lake Mead, which is supplied by snowmelt from upstream mountains. Changing weather patterns (caused by the warming atmosphere) are making snow more scarce. This means much less snowmelt to supply the lake with water for Las Vegas Valley’s over two million people. Above, Lake Mead’s lighter-colored rock walls show where the water level was in 2000.
lvvwd.com/water-system/where-your-water-comes-from/index.h
photo: Mark Henle Arizona Republic meme: localclimate.org
The big lake that is Las Vegas’ water supply wants to be a small pond
With decades of tenacious drought and negligible upstream snow, Lake Mead is at its lowest level in all its ninety years. In 2022, the US declared the nation’s first-ever water shortage emergency. The declaration covers the vast lower Colorado River basin, and its timeline is indefinite. Millions of people in Phoenix, Tucson, San Diego, Coachella Valley, and parts of the Los Angeles region will receive less water. The farmlands of southern California will also have to get by on less water.
nbcnews.com/science/environment/lake-mead-nears-dead-pool-status-water-levels-hit-another-historic-low-rcna34733
azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/joannaallhands/2022/06/08/why-no-planning-future-without-lake-mead-colorado-river/7544751001/
Image: Ethan Miller, meme: Local Climate.org
Extreme heatwaves in Las Vegas bring misery for some, and ridiculous energy bills for most.
Weeklong hellish heatwaves are becoming a new normal in Las Vegas. During these events, city air temps drop below 90,˚ finally, at 4 or 5 in the morning. As soon as the sun is up, the heat quickly climbs back up past 110˚. This daily temperature rhythm in the Las Vegas Summertime has been a feature of the high Mojave Desert for eons, but over these past couple decades these intense heatwaves are happening more often, and average almost 6˚F hotter than they were in 1970.
In 2022, heat-holding carbon emissions are increasing globally, not decreasing. So the atmosphere over Las Vegas (and everywhere) will continue to get hotter.
weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=vef
image: fox5vegas.com/weather/
Health impacts of higher heat in Las Vegas include heat stroke, heart attacks, and death.
Extremely high temperatures will become more and more dangerous to people’s physical and mental health, to the water supply, the electrical grid, and ecosystems.
Millions of Las Vegans live seemingly normal lives during long-lasting extreme heatwaves – as long as they stay inside refrigerated buildings and vehicles most of the day. The lives of Las Vegas’s 14,000+ unsheltered residents are not at all normal though, when it’s over 105˚ outside. Above, a man with his home on his back gets a quick cool-down on the Las Vegas strip during a June 2021 heatwave.
lasvegassun.com/news/2021/jun/16/stay-safe-from-heat-as-the-sizzling-las-vegas-summ/ image: Christopher DeVargas meme: localclimate.org
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13762-019-02357-9
Wait, what? My neighborhood gets hotter than the hot desert?
Las Vegas’s hotter climate trend is aggravated by the city’s “heat island effect.” Las Vegas is hotter than the surroundings Mojave Desert because its streets, parking lots and buildings absorb the sun’s heat, and hold on to it well into the night. Master-planned Las Vegas has very wide streets and roads compared to older U.S. cities, and this makes the city's heat island effect that much more severe. People can and do suffer in areas of town with more pavement and little tree cover.
Las Vegas’s rapidly growing heat islands make it one of the fastest warming cities in the US.
Average temps have gone up 5.8˚F in Las Vegas since 1970. Climate Central calculated the changing climates of 246 US cities, and found that Las Vegas is the fastest warming city in the U.S. Overnight temps are less cool and getting more warm.
Wildfire smoke is harsh on Las Vegans’ health, and climate-amplified mega fires have become a regular thing.
Las Vegans have found themselves breathing the smoke of far-away climate-exacerbated wildfires. Smoke from causes breathing discomfort even for Las Vegans without pre-existing breathing problems. The paved-over Las Vegas Valley itself is relatively safe from wildfire but the city is fringed on the west by drought-dried shrub lands and pine forest, as ready to burn as those in California.
Biblical downpours and flash floods in Las Vegas are happening more often.
Heavy monsoon storms flash-flooded the Las Vegas Strip in Summer 2022 – twice. Streets became raging rivers, two people died, casinos were damaged, and 17,000 NV Energy customers lost electricity. Planners know the area around Las Vegas Blvd. has a history of heavy flooding – once every couple decades. The Strip after all, is situated at the very bottom of the Valley. However…
Stronger flood resiliency in Las Vegas is a must.
Engineering-wise, the 2022 Las Vegas flooding was preventable. Now that climate change is well upon us, monsoonal rain bombs are becoming a regular part of Las Vegas’s climate. The Valley’s water retention / drainage system must now be made to provide climate-resilient performance.
image: #tornadotitans youtube.com/watch?v=wMIN3zGxqhY
historic image: wassupinlasvegas.com
Las Vegas region's wildlife include plants and animals found nowhere else on earth,
Many of the area's endemic species may not survive the region’s drying climate and wildfires.
The Mt. Charleston Blue Butterfly became an endangered species in August 2013, when wildfire burned 27,000+ acres in the Spring Mountains above Las Vegas. The fire burned much of the blue butterfly’s habitat, along with most of the butterflies. The region’s unprecedented drought has kept the butterfly’s remaining mountain meadow habitat dry and more fire prone.
npr.org/2013/07/23/204865648/nevada-wildfire-could-snuff-out-a-rare-butterfly
image: Corey Kallstrom/USFWS
The Las Vegas Bear Poppy grew all across the Las Vegas Valley before the great sprawl of the 1990s. Then the atmosphere heated up…
…but now it’s limited to just a few populations east of the city. Sprawl and off-road motor sports destroyed most the poppy’s desert habitat, and climate change is diminishing the rest. The region’s drier atmosphere is causing a life-cycle disruption between the Las Vegas Bear Poppy and it’s pollinators. This local native plant has dropped in number across nearly 90% of its remaining habitat.
biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/rare-southern-nevada-wildflower-bee-one-step-closer-to-endangered-species-protections-2022-04-26/
Image: Tiffany Pereira, UNLV
Icon of the Mojave Desert, the mighty Joshua Tree will not survive its new climate.
cause and effect
3. Las Vegas and Southern Nevada commit 0,000,000 tons of carbon to the warming atmosphere, each year. In 2024, that amount is rising.
The Clark County Greenhouse Gas Inventory is an annual accounting of
Outro